Determination of Alibis

Alright, here's PM 3.

I feel like I can really trust you now. So far whatever I'm doing seems to be working out. Just hoping I don't end up falling into a Game 3 repeat. Wouldn't put it past you to knock out some of your own team to gain trust if you are mafia. But shit, if there's a possibility of like a 3 person alliance between you, me, and Raya, that sounds pretty cool. I bring her up cause of her early vote on Weldar, other than that I got nothing to go on.

I felt the same about Viero and Weldar. Viero seemed more likely to be mafia, but I'll take what happened. At least now there's a good lynch target for tomorrow.

Here's the thing about me. I got the talk-to-dead-people role again... kinda. When the dead die, they are in dream bubbles and I can "connect" with them. Snake will not tell me what connecting means until I try it out on someone. Had Weldar turned up townie, I wouldn't hesitate, but I don't know the repercussions are of connecting with a mafian and will likely abstain from it tonight. Thoughts? Also, you read MSPA, what the hell are dream bubbles?

Alright, I've taken my time a bit here because I wanted to analyze the thread, but don't want to take any longer as I'm not sure when morning is starting and don't think highly of my chances of survival, especially if Viero is indeed mafian.

Before I get to that, the idea of this three-way alliance is alluring, but I want to hear more from Raya than simply her initial vote on Weldar. We could attempt to get in contact with her today. A lot of mafians, particularly good players, will indeed at least vote against their own teammates early on to set themselves apart from them. I don't suspect her or anything, but we have to tread lightly with her. We'll see how she acts today, then perhaps try to get in contact with her.

Your role sounds like Aradia. In the webcomic she's one of the trolls who was actually dead since before it began, and ended up ascending to god tier and becoming alive again. To put it simply, anyways. Point is, at one point she uses her power to teleport to the Outer Ring and begins talking to dead people in dream bubbles. The dream bubbles, see, are where dreamers can interact with dead people, essentially. They exist in the Outer Ring, a space beyond the outskirts of the universe, within which both time and space are tumultuous and intertwining. To navigate you need to be skilled in the manipulation of both aspects. Within the outer ring are the dream bubbles, where people can physically meet the dead. This could be really useful.

Also, I'd agree. Don't risk connecting with a mafia player. There's the chance it could affect you negatively, and beyond that, he would try to deceive or at least confuse you. Weldar knows what he's doing.

My role is actually one quite useful to what we're doing. I can't tell you the character as per the rules, but the idea is THE MAIL NEVER FAILS. You'd get the hint if you were an MSPA reader . I'm allowed 3 normal PMS to 1 person (though not to multiple, unlike a normal person can), and beyond that can respond once to every PM someone sends me, though I can't send except to respond. Not sure if I'm allowed to send more than three PMs to a person who I'm using my normal PMs on (3 normal plus 3 responses to their PMs if that makes sense), I've yet to hear back from Snake in my PM. It's an interesting connectivity role, hampered in its ability to actively seek and start alliances, but strong in its power to reciprocate and converse.

Tomorrow, I'll use my 3 PMs to contact Raya. I can gauge her reactions to try to see if she can be trusted.

As for the game, here are my current thoughts. On Night 1 it's a lot harder to gauge guilt than innocence, but I have a little of both below:

My suspicions against Viero stand. He's been getting much better at this game since he first joined, but what he did day 1 seems like a poor mafian move, a slip-up, if you will, and his defense was shabby.

I say that we focus on lynching him tomorrow, and see how others react. I find that some of the best information can be gathered based on this sort of thing. Look out for the ones who jump too quickly onto him without saying much, and of course for those who might defend him based on poor logic.

Beyond him, there's the few who bandwagoned on Req.

I concur with the suspicion of Sonix. I find it a pattern that weaker mafians tend to focus on the fact that there's 'nothing to go on' or 'everything is confusing'. Sonix, being in his first game, could fall into this suspicion. However, due to that same reason, he could still be innocent, so I don't think he's worth pushing until we find out more about him.

DF I'm less inclined to believe is mafian. Although she jumped quick on the Requiem bandwagon, she has a habit of voting defensively, one that is reflected throughout prior games. She can be watched, but she could easily be of either side.

Requiem himself I actually think is innocent. He was suspicious via his defensiveness, but given the circumstances (this being his second game, and he dying night 1 last game), I think he was just being uptight, especially with the nature of the bandwagon on him, as I still think it was to shield Weldar, however foolish that may be, and however likely it is that most weren't mafians. Today he's likely to attract a lot of attention, so before we contact him we should see how he reacts. I say this only because I want to be able to communicate with you, and because I want to use my normal 3 PMs on Raya.

TJ is interesting. He voted Requiem, and is smart enough that he could easily have used the defensiveness as a shield while he tried to save either Weldar or Perry. However, his reasons were good, especially since Req DID look pretty scummy, I'll admit.

Last person, Avalanche. He didn't do much, but it's worth noting that he held back from voting Weldar or Viero even after we posed our arguments. It's highly possible that he didn't want to see a teammate go down that early. He's a good player, but I've seen him do similar before. I'm watching him.

So plan for today? I say we get go for Viero, I'll use my three to contact Raya, and we can gauge Requiem to see if he can be trusted. Depending how that goes, we can contact him tonight or tomorrow.

smashbro wrote:
Oh, hey, we both survived! :B Wanted to wait a little bit on a reply in case anything were to come up, and something did, but more an that later.

Firstly, I knew I forgot something with the last PM: an outline of suspicions. For the most part they pretty much aligned with yours. A look back at DarkFalco led me to think less of her as a possible mafian, and Requiem I'm inclined to believe is not mafian, if anything. Viero is dead, so is Av, the latter I didn't give much thought to even with his last post. TheTJ I kinda overlooked, and I like that you brought him up. Need to get that dude to post more.

For now, I'm staying on Sonix for reasons stated. Avos had his way of jumping onto my suspicions list, but I can also see him just being overly paranoid.

Also, yeah, I don't get the reference since I haven't read MSPA, but I did some sleuthing of the refernce (had to get past the links to Blue's Clues first).

About the dreambubbles thing. Turns out that Camilla is actually playing and that first death was not flavor text. Picked her dream bubble when I found that out. So how it works is that there's a separate forum that players post in when they die. Once dead, they make a thread titled "<This Character's> Dreambubble". If I pick them, I'm free to browse and post in their thread. Had I picked Weldar, it'd be the same. Also, anyone who dies can also post in threads of those who died before them. So Weldar's character, as well as the recent 3 now, are posting in Camilla's thread too. So far, I haven't been able to get any information, but it'll be more useful once another night or two passes. For now it's mostly these MSPA readers acting in character, which I'm trying to do as well and seem to be doing a good job according to Snake.

Nepetainabox wrote::I know you don't read Homestuck...

Shit man, you really did your research. I want to see if any of them can figure out it is you. I know I wouldnt have been able to figure it out myself.

:B

Also, I'm glad I waited, cause Perry brought up something in the thread that I didn't think of: Doc Scratch. Snake's moderator name is Doc Scratch in the dreambubbles forum. I do recall snake saying somewhere (either in skype or in a mafia thread) that he wanted Doc Scratch to be the GM. I don't know what kind of character Doc Scratch is, but I do suspect omnipotent. Here's a wild idea, we may actually have to lynch Snake at some point. Crazy? Maybe, hence why I'm telling you this.

So yeah, how's it going with Raya?

Spoiler:

Perrytheplatypus wrote:Okay, so this is pretty much everyone i've rounded up as a confirmed innocent so far. I'm grouping you all together because this is my last PM of the phase, and with Q's power he should be able to reply to this thing once and inform you all of what he thinks so far (if he's okay with that ofcourse).

Fed is in here because he's the first I contacted in a sort of leap-of-faith kindof way. He told me his power (it's pretty darn useless, he can tell you himself if he wants) and it all checks out in every possible angle.

Req we all kindof figured out because of Snake's obvious hinting in his fluff and a stray comment Req made himself in the skype chat

Q and smash shouldn't really be needed to be questioned after taking out Weldar and one of them already have died but being 0kay with that.

Now i'm going to confide in you all and just tell you my role so you can suggest a good night action for me if you desire.
I'm Karkat, it is me. I have the Jailer option, where I can pull someone into one of my "memos" during the nightphase, and talk to them. They can only reply once however.
It's pretty shitty, if not for the fact that this means they cannot be targeted that nightphase, nor can they target someone else.

Night 1 I protected Requiem with it, because a doublevoting power is damn well handy.
Night 2 I tried to protect smashbro with it, but Snake told me I couldn't. Possibly dreambubble shenanigans. I ended up contacting Q with it, which led to his little addition to this tiny collaboration.

People we might want to contact/check on/add to this collaboration would be Sonix! and Raya... if they both check out, we'd have a collab of about 7 people over a group of 12 people left. Aslong as you then don't vote for eachoter, this game should be steamrolled easily.

Hey Perry! I got your hint and am glad to know you’re innocent, unless snake pulled a fast one and made Karkat evil. I have been waiting to reply to see if I could pick up on some reactions in the thread first and relay them to you. At this point that hasn’t happened much, unfortunately. DF is as sheepy as ever, Minby looks to be laying low IMO, TJ seems rational but suspicious, and td260 still strikes me as a little off, but Relm hasn't responded to either of our pressure yet. Also I think I've got something on Sonix, and will share it below.

You were close with the role. The way it works is that I can only contact one person with my original 3 PMs each cycle, but beyond that, I can reply once to each PM someone sends me. It’s a good role for communication, but needs help to get started. The only other two who know this so far are Requiem and smashbro.

Smashbro and I have also been working to set up an alliance. Day 2 I used my regular PMs to get in touch with Raya, and test her reaction, as smash and I both thought that her day 1 vote against Weldar means there’s a chance she could be innocent. She seemed 50/50. Night 2 he was to send his last PM Night 2 to Requiem, who we both trust at the moment, with results of his investigation of Avalanche’s dreambubble, telling Req to forward it to me. I PMed Requiem a response that had a lot of the suspicions I told you, and a cordial invite to work together.

As I said above, I got in contact with Raya day 2 to test her reaction, and when I asked why she voted so easily for Sonix she responded that she didn't have a killing power but knew he was supposed to die night 1.

At first this made me suspicious: She wasn’t active enough for players to have enough to trust her, so why would one of the killing roles get in contact with her? Raya could have been in PM-contact with some fourth killer from night 1. The problem with this was that she's pretty busy, and hadn't been able to do much in the thread to garner trust. Why would a killer of any alignment come in contact with her so quickly?

This led me to conclude that either Raya was lying and DOES have a killing power, be it one of a mafian, vigilante, or serial killer. That or she's in a mason/cult group with whoever used that fourth shot.

Granted, Raya could also have been a benevolent killer who withheld her identity because she doesn't trust me that much, but it still bothered me a little. So I resolved to keep an eye on her and attempt to get a better reaction test.

Fortunately, I didn’t have to. I didn't reveal this on the thread because it could jeopardize two innocents, but smashbro's power allows him to visit peoples' dreambubbles (threads in an afterlife forum), and he visited Avalanche last night and learned Raya is innocent. This means she was telling the truth, unless she's an inno-scanning SK or godfather.

I think she’s townie, or third party at worst: if you look at the flavor text in smashbro's death, smash entered Terezi (Av's) dream bubble and learned about a kitty. As I know about Smash learning about Raya, I think Raya is Nepeta. This makes me think she has shipping powers, as frankly that’s Nepeta’s big thing in the webcomic. With these, there’s almost no way she’d be mafia, as that would be so overpowered: loverbonding people for guaranteed double kills. So at worst this could be a third party designed to screw with people, and quite likely she’s a townie, as loverbonding seems more like an anti-scum ability.

If this is right, she was telling the truth about Sonix dodging death night 1. And if that’s true, I’ll bet she shipped Sonix with one of the people who actually died. As I doubt a doctor would randomly protect Sonix night 1, I suspect it was either an innate NK-immunity (which to me is a possible godfather/SK), or he's really John and his god-tier status protects him from ‘unjust/unheroic’ nightkills. That or whatever would have killed him night 1 actually caused him to ascend, as is possible.

In the meantime, today, I posted that last textwall to not merely detail my suspicions but to hopefully provoke reactions. So far I haven’t been successful. Right now my eye is on Relmitos, TJ and Sonix for reasons mentioned in the post and this PM, and also td260 for the same reasons as yesterday though his defense seems like it makes sense, and Minby cause he seems like a possible SK due to his propensity to lay low this game. I think I’m going to try using my 3 PMs to contact one the less scummy of those five, (possibly TJ or Sonix to try to determine the alignment of the other) and we can see who looks worth lynching. I think Relmitos could be a good lynch, as could Sonix, but with him I don’t like the risk of losing John.

If you still have that last PM I’d love to hear your thoughts on this, especially since I could then forward you the results of the reaction test I try on one of my suspects today. If not, or if you need it for something else, that’s fine, we can touch base tomorrow. Just remember I need to hear from you first so I can respond and still have my regular 3 open for another reaction test to try narrowing down our targets.

I can't respond to everyone yet, but I can currently send my thoughts to you for this last PM and to smashbro. Haven't had contact with Fedaykin yet, and I think I still want to use my regular 3 to reaction test someone tonight. Requiem also never got back to me on my last PM :[

Your power, Perry, is a pretty important one. It's a lot better than you think: Allows for not merely a protection if you're correct about it being a true jailer, but also a reaction test. It can accomplish a number of things at once if used correctly and since it's anonymous it's a pretty surefire way to see if someone is clean enough to join our coalition.

I personally think you should go for either of the two you mentioned, Sonix or Raya, with the jailing at this point. This will not only protect them (essential for Sonix for being a likely John), but give you insight into their alignment.

I'd say jail smash (who is still alive, if he hasn't told you), but I think that would prevent him from accessing any dreambubbles tonight, and since I have a feeling Minby was a Seer of sorts (being Rose), we might want him to be able to get in touch. The only reason that could be a good idea is if you genuinely feel he's going to die, and there won't be a doctor protecting him.

Now, as for my current suspicions, TheTJ still is high up there, though I was hesitant to pursue that due to his Dave claim. I still think he was attempting to get Sonix as an easy lynch, and passed off that claim to save himself. It's easy to bluff. The biggest thing that makes me think he's legit is the lack of a counterclaim, though that could happen next dayphase. He also claimed that he'll survive a lynch though, so if we need to test his alignment we can probably be safe about it. He could make a risk-free and actually productive lynch if he can really keep himself alive, as if we're wrong he'll be confirmed and survive, and if we're right, well, another mafian down. It doesn't help that we'll be wondering about this almost all game if we don't do something about it :/ It could be useful to subside on him for now though. I still think smash being alive could be due to his being Aradia, who can reach god tire, while Dave can't. If that's the case, risking a Teej lynch might not be such a good idea. We'll see as the day rolls in. He might not need testing if nobody CCs him.

Next, I still suspect td260, though I don't think he was trying to divert attention from Minby so much as offer something about TheTJ. If TheTJ is indeed Dave Strider, the Knight of Time, td could be guilty, though he had a fair point about the spont-mode possibility. I find the biggest thing about td still remains that he's a little selectively over-defensive, and beyond that has done whatever he can to stay on the fringes of discussion, especially in Day 2. He's still a little lower priority than TheTJ for me.

Relmitos I think is reasonable: Overall he is pretty low on my suspect list for now; I could have been wrong about him. But he's not off it, as he's still showing a tendency to lay back unless called on, follow gently in our footsteps, and avoid getting directly involved in lynches for a leading candidate. Also, I pointed out that he didn't vote td260 last dayphase, and not long afterwards he voted td here purely because he's gonna be gone next dayphase. It's kind of shrewd timing on Relm's part, especially when Minby and TJ were such better lynch possibilities this phase. Not to mention it's a bit of a shit strategy: Smash definitely had good reason but the way Relm said this was odd. It's almost like he wanted us to go after td just because he's going to be AFK for a bit and to assume that smash must have better reason than just that. While the latter was true, you don't want to go after an imminent inactive Day 3 just for the sake of inactivity itself. This would be different if Relm had cited some of the real reasons to doubt him, but the fact is he didn't say anything further.

Also, DF bothers me for what she said when she pointed td260 out. Eyes were on Minby, but not to the point where, were he mafia, he'd need a distraction. He at the time wasn't going to be lynched. While he was under suspicion everyone was voting on TheTJ. Regardless of my suspicions of td260, he didn't swoop in with new info to distract Minby or anything, he pointed out something about TJ's posts that were kind of prevalent. Hers was a connection that made only loose sense to me. She also held off to vote until the lynch was almost decided and just bandwagonned and followed like a sheepie. She's laying a bit low herself, and while I don't have much to suspect her on, she's worth a bit of second thinking.

Sonix did the same thing; said two things the entire dayphase, really, and with the last one basically just voted as if indifferent once he was no longer under attack. He isn't offering anything to the discussion right now, and it's annoying, if less suspicious than the others I mentioned.

I will say that we should keep an eye out for people who try to immediately condemn him just because TJ is a likely Dave. I've seen mafians make that mistake before; trying to push for a lynch thinking everyone will assume that just because one side of the argument is innocent the other MUST be guilty. It's a possibility, though experienced players aren't very likely to make that mistake. If we see someone do this, they might be worth giving pressure to, as I could see them being mafian.

Tonight I'm likely to use my PMs to contact either Relm or DF, as they're on the fringe of the suspicion vat; evidence against them being not very concrete but not very immaterial either.

Sorry this reply took so long. I was waiting for Minby to make his dreambubble, but that won't happen cause he's not dead either. I don't know why, but oh well. No info from him I guess.

But I did learn one thing. DarkFalco is our reviver. When Snake said that (though he probably should have been vague about who the reviver was) he said that something would happen that would allow another person in the dreambubbles to come back to life. What this is, I don't know, and it's completely out of my control. That will begin once DF uses her power if she will EVER DECIDE TO USE IT. Up to you to figure out which character would have that role. I will probably contact her later in the phase and have her revive Avalanche or something. A scan would help, though he'd be an obvious night target.

I don't know if the possibility of anyone reaching god tier exists in this game. Haven't heard anything about it at least from Snake.

If you think TJ is legit, then td might be our option today. At this point, we have most of the players left that we think are innocent. There probably someone that we may have looked at or overlooked that are mafia, or a possible SK. I trust that Req, DF, and minby are townies. Raya, I lean with being townie. Fed, Sonix, I dunno, and TJ and td are probably mafia.

That last PM was sent to DF for the night phase, but she never opened it. Then the dayphase started and I deleted it cause I didn't want that to count for anything today just in case.

That's pretty much all I have. I really don't want to translate Minby's shit.